Brexit

Not sure if anyone interested in the shananigans. Or perhaps some would like some clarification on the nonsense. If you have some questions, or just want to give an opinion, would be interested to hear what you got.

KickTheCan: What's your view on the nonsense?

Yeah, what is my view on the non-sense!! Well, Teresa Mayhem has seemingly dug her heels in and will, for the third time on 20th March I believe, re-introduce her rejected deal. I think the British people are losing the will to live. So, seemingly, that will be rejected once again and we will be asking for an extension to the deadline date of 29th march, which may or not be granted depending on what sort of excuse we have for a delay and it seems we could be scratching around to answer that one. Meanwhile, MPs continue their devisive rhetoric and the chaos and confusion continues onward with seemingly no resolve. I would have liked to see that extension time, if granted by the 22 member States of the EU, to be used for a public referendum on the three choices. Accept May's deal, accept a No Deal, or forget about the whole thing and stay in. But who knows what now will be the next new shananigan.

KickTheCan: I think it's hilarious that so many eastern-block nations spent ages trying to get into the EU, and now western Europe is trying to get out. It makes you question whether the western nations really believed their own rhetoric about why they were forming the EU in the first place (although in Britain's case, they were always more wary of the idea than some of the others). Outside of Britain, escaping the EU is a big part of what has made nationalism cool again in places like France, Spain and Italy. Even in Germany, the rise of the AFD is, in my view, almost entirely because of their anti-EU sentiments. And the reason why is pretty simple - the European parliament and judiciary tend to infringe on national sovereignty, and the governments of the western block don't trust the governments of the eastern block to make decisions for their people. On a local level, I think for most people this is framed mostly in economic terms, that somehow the eastern part of Europe is dragging down the west through shared trade and economic regulation. It hits home because lots of people in Europe are struggling right now, and it has a very visible face in the numerous economic refugees who have settled there in the wake of the Arab Spring and particularly the Syrian conflict.

The correct solution to this problem is to fix the EU to make it more in line with what everyone actually wants. Unfortunately that's a hard sell because the European Parliament as a whole isn't set on constitutional reform, and that'll only get worse as the Eurozone grows in size. So if you can't change the system, Britain hopes it can escape the system, but that's proving very difficult as well. As a result they've come up with a lot of nonsense to try to justify all sorts of dumb stuff in order to get going with that process. Divisive rhetoric here, in my view, is mostly a distraction technique. But now the people of Britain are getting annoyed as you say - I imagine the politicians are getting annoyed too.

My opinion on the EU is based almost exclusively on my experience dealing with the various member states. The firm impression I am left with is that trying to get so many proud countries, with such long histories to find common ground and compromise their various prides to form a cohesive group is always going to be a thing with very long odds.

Almost the only way that I can see it happening is if Germany, France and Britain give and give beyond the point of personal sacrifice. And I just don't see that happening, nor do I think it should.
They should gracefully dissolve the whole thing as a failed experiment and let economics take their natural course. The UK leaving is probably the easiest way to achieve this, as long as Germany has the good sense to claim that as an excuse for withdrawing. Without Germany and the UK, there's no way it survives.

It's a question of the EU falling within a decade or dragging it out for a couple of decades. Either way, it's dead.


I'm not sure what the best thing for the British people is. I can definitely see both sides. Ireland is going to be a pain in the short term, although I honestly can't see it making a big difference in the long term.
From a purely biased view, a Brexit is probably slightly better for NZ as it'll probably have a positive influence on our export markets, as well as bringing the UK closer again.

nzlockie: Yes, of course pround countries with long histories trying to integrate within this EU capsule is going to come up with some challenges so I am not expecting an easy road from time to time. But if we view the EU more on economic, trade and security umbrellas, then these are the avenues that give the EU member states strength and I think many of the member States do see that as constructs towards protectionism even though nationalism is always seemingly not far away.

Anyway, going back to your comment on what might be the best thing for the British people, that one seems to be an open-ended dilemma. We have two camps on Leaving or Staying and they both have credible arguments to put forward on various issues. And, whatever the outcome, we will continue those arguments I would imagine we'll into the future when things don't always go as foreseen. Yeah, I can see a lot of finger pointing happening for many years. However, the Northern Ireland issue has become a direct challenge to the EU because it could water down trade and economic rules that the EU base their laws upon for every member state and to give way to Britain could cause problems for the EU when other member states may possibly want for themselves some relaxation of those laws and rules into the future. Of course, northern Ireland is part if the Union, and we are not willing for them to be treated differently within a customs union that Britain would not be part of which means Britain having to stay in the customs union which is not really leaving the EU. Feels like one leg in, one leg out and Britain will not be able to negotiate her own trade deals outside of the EU but still have to abide by EU rules and regulations without having a seat at the table any longer. Oh, and having to contribute further to EU coffers. Not sure if any other country would accept that kind of construct which feels we have been disenfranchised. And so it goes on....!

admin: Eastern Bloc countries I suppose are concerned into the future for their security and their economies and wanting to belong to a construct that gives them those greater protections would feel appealing but, yes, it does mean putting national sovereignty somewhat on the back burner. What do Britain, France and Germany really get out of Eastern Bloc countries economically and structurally besides perhaps cheap labour, could be debated on another platform I suppose? The free border EU policy does bring with it other problems into Britain's socio and economic structures especially on housing, education and healthcare strains into those three major economies and it seems that these concerns were the main reasons that the British public voted in the greater numbers to Leave. Theresa May's deal does not limit free movement as we would remain in the customs union and single market (because of the Northern Ireland issue) which must include free movement according to the EU. So we have a stalemate situation in trying to create some kind of sustainable environment which both sides can live with. But I suppose you both get most of this anyway as this has been going around in circles seemingly forever!

I suppose Theresa May could be reaching the limits of her leadership. She does not seem to reasonate with her own party, the EU or perhaps even the British public any longer. Would the EU, in granting an extension to Article 50, introduce a condition asking that May be removed from negotiations or even resign as Leader? But really is no more perhaps than we are asking ourselves! We will see what the next couple more days brings to the table but unless either side has some ephiphany moment, what will change with an extension period?

KickTheCan: Spoiler alert: nothing will change.

admin: Well, if you mean nothing will change with an extension period, if it is granted, then, no, I don't see it will if May continues with her Deal. The EU have made it clear they are not prepared to negotiate further on their proposals. It is what it is apparently.

If, however, that extension period (I believe 3 months) is used to perhaps hold another Referendum, or maybe Election, or perhaps the DUP can be won round somehow, then we could see something different developing. But it will still be down to the three choices on the table ultimately. A No Deal, May's deal or Stay In. And this would be the referendum choices if we saw that happen, IMO.

Let us firstly get the extension period and then see what Theresa May has in mind. Not even sure she knows herself yet!

Now that we have gained an extension period, well...two actually, the ball remains in parliament as to what they want to achieve in those time spans. We are hearing some fuzzy ideas but, as yet, nothing concrete. On Wednesday we have the indicative votes so maybe something concrete could emerge that moves towards some resolution despite the fact that Theresa May has said that she will basically ignore those contributions EVEN AFTER complaining in her controversial speech last week that parliament has not played a sufficiently active role in telling her what MPs do want!! Not sure how she squares that one.

Well, as we have seen, the indicative votes seemed to have been an exercise in futility. And May's deal has been rejected for the third time. Another excercise in futility. Monday could well see more indicative votes and some suggestion that May will re-introduce her deal for a fourth time. To get off this merry go round before we all lose the will to live is a decision only the people can give so I am for another Referendum whether we go for a NO Deal, May's deal or just forget the whole thing!! Perhaps then MPs will get behind whatever and we can move on and kill this thing.